Enjoyed this post by Exponential View (a highly-regarded newsletter on the future) on future tech regulation. My highlight below.
(1) Network effects: The bigger these platforms get, the bigger they can get
(2) Tech companies have diminishing increasing returns to scale
(3) Creates behemoths, monopoly power that is good for the consumer and regulators like
I recently read Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life which was 💯. You may recognize Rory Sutherland from popular Ted Talks: life lessons from an ad man, perspective is everything and sweat the small stuff. Favorite ten takeaways below 👇
(1) Uncertainty matters more than duration in the pain of waiting
An unknown, 5-minute wait feels worse than a known, 10-minute wait. Don’t spend $3,486,686,433 to speed up your train – instead, spend 0.05% on a sign that shows when the next train arrives.
(2) Admission of a downside makes you more trustworthy
Rahul Moodgal (Master Fund Raiser) said on Capital Allocators the best pitches had two admissions of downsides: (1) “when you were wrong and what you learned” and (2) “why people don’t invest with you.” What are ways to actually try this?
(3) People care about expected outcomes but also the possible variance
People will pay a premium (i.e. take the “longer backroads” to the airport) to avoid the terrible (i.e. an accident or major traffic on the highway). Same for buying brands – you’ll pay a premium to ensure non-terribleness. Real life Sharpe ratios.
(4) Spreadsheets are a “dangerous technology”
Don’t be over-reliant on numbers and metrics – “what gets mis-measured gets mismanaged.”
(5) People use
“reason” for “appearance of being reasonable” (not better decisions)
A “reason first, discover later” mentality is wasteful because humans are complex systems. Move fast and break things.
(6) Signaling must be expensive
Humans attach significance to a communication (“meeting” or “wedding invite”) proportional to the cost of generating it (“flying to them” or “fancy card”) i.e. why getting in a plane or car to see a client / prospect matters instead of a phone call.
(7) Placebos are under-rated
The mind 🧠 is a powerful drug 💊
(8) 10 x 1 is not the same as 1 x 10
Interacting with 10 people 1 time (“10 intro meetings”) is not the same as 1 person 10 times (“routine coffee check-ins with large prospects”).
(9) Odd people drive innovation
Suggest silly things. Be more unconventional, try “hit and run experiments” and embrace failure. Sometimes, you find a pearl.
(10) Don’t design for average
When your head is in a refrigerator and your feet on a burner, the average temperature is okay.
✌️